Chapter 5: Food Security

The current food system (production, transport, processing, packaging, storage, retail, consumption, loss and waste) feeds the great majority of world population and supports the livelihoods of over 1 billion people. Since 1961, food supply per capita has increased more than 30%, accompanied by greater use of nitrogen fertilisers (increase of about 800%) and water resources for irrigation (increase of more than 100%). However, an estimated 821 million people are currently undernourished, 151 million children under five are stunted, 613 million women and girls aged 15 to 49 suffer from iron deficiency, and 2 billion adults are overweight or obese. The food system is under pressure from non-climate stressors (e.g., population and income growth, demand for animal-sourced products), and from climate change. These climate and non-climate stresses are impacting the four pillars of food security (availability, access, utilisation, and stability)

Drivers of change in crop–livestock systems and their potential impacts on agro-ecosystems services and human wellbeing to 2030: A study commissioned by the CGIAR Systemwide Livestock Programme

A Study commissioned by the CGIAR Systemwide Livestock Programm

Global food systems: addressing malnutrition through sustainable system pathways

Addressing malnutrition (in all its forms) whilst developing a global food system compatible with environmental sustainability remains one of the most pressing challenges of the 21st century. The current framing of our food systems fails to fully capture the inequities in production, distribution, efficiency and sufficiency of all components necessary to end malnutrition. This research presents a holistic, scalable and replicable framework to model food system pathways (across all essential nutritional components, including macronutrients, micronutrients and amino acids), providing quantification of production, losses, allocation and conversions at all stages of the value chain. Furthermore, this framework attempts to translate current food metrics—often presented in tonnage or absolute terms—into daily per capita figures to provide important context for how this translates into food security and nutrition. This framework can be applied at global, regional and national levels. Here, this model is first presented at a global level and then focuses on India as a national-level example. Results highlight that, at a global level, we produce the equivalent of 5800 kilocalories and 170 grams of protein per person per day through crops alone. However, major system inefficiencies mean that less than half of crop calories and protein are delivered (or converted) for final food supply. Pathway inefficiencies are even more acute for micronutrients; more than 60% of all essential micronutrients assessed in this study are lost between production and consumer-available phases of the food supply system. Globally we find very large inequalities in per capita levels of food production, ranging from 19,000 kilocalories (729 grams of protein) per person per day in North America to 3300 kilocalories (80 grams of protein) in Africa. Large variations are also seen in terms of food system efficiency, ranging from 15-20% in North America to 80-90% in Africa. Understanding regional inefficiencies, inequalities and trade imbalances will be crucial to meet the needs of a growing global population. This case is exemplified in India-specific framework results. India’s domestic production capacity would result in severe malnutrition across a large proportion (>60%) of the population (even under ambitious yield and waste reduction scenarios) in 2030/50. This shortfall will have to be addressed through optimised intervention and trade developments. This work also explores a number of solutions which couple improved nutritional outcomes with sustainability. Analyses of global and national nutritional guidelines conclude that most are incompatible with climate targets; the recommended USA or Australian diet provides minimal emissions savings relative to the business-as-usual diet in 2050. Low-cost, high-quality protein will remain a crucial element in developing an effective and sustainable food system. This research explores the potential of two sources. Results find that meat substitute products have significant health and emission benefits, but are strongly sensitive to both price and consumer acceptability. The environmental impact of aquaculture is strongly species-dependent. This study provides the first quantification of global greenhouse gas emissions from aquaculture, estimated to be 227±61 MtCO2e (approximately 3-4% of total livestock emissions). This is projected to increase to 365±99MtCO2e by 2030

Thermodynamic Limitations to Agricultural Productivity and Food Security: Livestock in Sub-Saharan Africa

By 2050, to feed a nearly tripling and more urbanized population in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will require significant increases in crop productivity throughout the region’s agricultural systems, if a greater reliance on imports is to be avoided. Increases in crop yields to maximum potential productivity (closure of crop yield gaps) can produce more calories and protein, but may be insufficient to sustain the burgeoning human population according to recent analysis (van Ittersum et al., 2016). In this thesis, alternative management options (i.e. crop allocation and crop substitutions) are found to increase total energy productivity and the thermodynamic efficiency of food production systems, and provide theoretical potential to support population growth for four SSA countries. Using feeding efficiencies for US livestock systems and accounting for human caloric and protein requirements, the diversion of maize grown explicitly for livestock feed (subsequently referred to as “maize-for-feed”) to direct consumption by humans was found to currently enable population growth by 6 – 11% in Ghana, 4 – 7.4% in Nigeria, 4.4 – 10.5% in Tanzania, and 24.8 – 40.9% in South Africa. By 2050, if crop yield gaps were closed to 80% of potential yields for rainfed maize (by increasing irrigation and nitrogen application) and assuming no increase in harvest area, significantly larger fractions of projected populations were found to be sustained from direct consumption of maize-for-feed, where protein is limiting: 18.4 – 32.2% in Ghana, 11.7 – 21.1% in Nigeria, 6.6 – 15.6% in Tanzania, and 38.1 – 59.5% in South Africa. But when considering energy alone, these amounts are 35 – 42%, 20 – 25%, and 24 – 29% greater, respectively excluding South Africa, than recent projections that include substantial grain-fed livestock, meaning that previous yield gap assessments to identify ‘biophysical limitations’ on agricultural systems may be significant underestimations (van Ittersum et al., 2016). Alternatively, substitution of maize-for-feed with yams, cassava, sorghum, millet, and potatoes was found to also increase population significantly. Cultural practices and socioeconomic conditions affect food demand such as taste preferences and diet composition, but diversification away from grain-fed livestock products with substitution of alternative cropping systems could more efficiently feed people using fewer resources in sub-Saharan Africa. Advisor: Adam J. Lisk

Thermodynamic Limitations to Agricultural Productivity and Food Security: Livestock in Sub-Saharan Africa

By 2050, to feed a nearly tripling and more urbanized population in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will require significant increases in crop productivity throughout the region’s agricultural systems, if a greater reliance on imports is to be avoided. Increases in crop yields to maximum potential productivity (closure of crop yield gaps) can produce more calories and protein, but may be insufficient to sustain the burgeoning human population according to recent analysis (van Ittersum et al., 2016). In this thesis, alternative management options (i.e. crop allocation and crop substitutions) are found to increase total energy productivity and the thermodynamic efficiency of food production systems, and provide theoretical potential to support population growth for four SSA countries. Using feeding efficiencies for US livestock systems and accounting for human caloric and protein requirements, the diversion of maize grown explicitly for livestock feed (subsequently referred to as “maize-for-feed”) to direct consumption by humans was found to currently enable population growth by 6 – 11% in Ghana, 4 – 7.4% in Nigeria, 4.4 – 10.5% in Tanzania, and 24.8 – 40.9% in South Africa. By 2050, if crop yield gaps were closed to 80% of potential yields for rainfed maize (by increasing irrigation and nitrogen application) and assuming no increase in harvest area, significantly larger fractions of projected populations were found to be sustained from direct consumption of maize-for-feed, where protein is limiting: 18.4 – 32.2% in Ghana, 11.7 – 21.1% in Nigeria, 6.6 – 15.6% in Tanzania, and 38.1 – 59.5% in South Africa. But when considering energy alone, these amounts are 35 – 42%, 20 – 25%, and 24 – 29% greater, respectively excluding South Africa, than recent projections that include substantial grain-fed livestock, meaning that previous yield gap assessments to identify ‘biophysical limitations’ on agricultural systems may be significant underestimations (van Ittersum et al., 2016). Alternatively, substitution of maize-for-feed with yams, cassava, sorghum, millet, and potatoes was found to also increase population significantly. Cultural practices and socioeconomic conditions affect food demand such as taste preferences and diet composition, but diversification away from grain-fed livestock products with substitution of alternative cropping systems could more efficiently feed people using fewer resources in sub-Saharan Africa. Advisor: Adam J. Lisk

The Future of Food and Agriculture: Trends and Challenges

The purpose of this report is to help mobilize the concrete and concerted actions required to realize these global agendas. It contributes to a common understanding of the major long-term trends and challenges that will determine the future of food security and nutrition, rural poverty, the efficiency of food systems, and the sustainability and resilience of rural livelihoods, agricultural systems and their natural resource base

Indian Agriculture Towards 2030

This open access book brings together varying perspectives for transformational change needed in India’s agriculture and allied sectors. Stressing the need of thinking for a post-Green Revolution future, the book promotes approaching this change through eight broad areas, indicating the policy shifts needed to meet the challenges for the coming decade (2021-2030). The book comprises of ten contributions. Apart from the overview chapter on transformational change and the concluding chapter on pathways for 2030, there are eight thematic chapters on topics such as transforming Indian agriculture, dietary diversity for nutritive and safe food; climate crisis and risk management; water in agriculture; pests, pandemics, preparedness and biosecurity natural farming; agroecology and biodiverse futures; science, technology and innovation in agriculture; and structural reforms and governance. The writing style of these papers written by technical experts is forward-looking—not merely an analysis of what has been and why it was so, but what ought to be. This is an essential reading for those interested in agriculture, food and nutrition sectors of India, and more so their interconnectedness

Land use and food security in 2050: a narrow road

After a first foresight study on "World food security in 2050" (Agrimonde), CIRAD and INRA have turned their attention to a new foresight exercise on 'Land use and food security in 2050' (Agrimonde-Terra). This new study seeks to highlight levers that could modify ongoing land-use patterns for improved food and nutrition security. Agrimonde-Terra proposes a trend analysis on the global context, climate change, food diets, urban-rural linkages, farm structures, cropping and livestock systems, and explores five scenarios. Three scenarios entitled "Metropolization", "Regionalization" and "Households" are based on current competing trends identified in most world regions. Two scenarios entitled "Healthy" and "Communities" involve potential breaks that could change the entire land use and food security system. The "Healthy" scenario is the only one that makes it possible to achieve sustainable world food and nutrition security in 2050. Nevertheless, current trends in agricultural and food systems in most parts of the world converge towards the "Metropolization" scenario, which is not sustainable in terms of both land use and human health. Therefore, changing the course of ongoing trends in favor of sustainable land uses and healthy food systems will be one of the main challenges of the next decades. It will require systemic transformation, strong and coherent public policies across sectors and scales, and consistent actions from a wide range of actors. This foresight provides a large information base on land uses, food systems and food security and constitutes a tool box to stimulate debates, imagine new policies and innovations. It aims to empower decision makers, stakeholders, non-governmental organizations and researchers to develop a constructive dialogue on the futures of land uses and food security at either world, regional and national levels

Looking ahead: long-term prospects for Africa's agricultural development and food security

"Sub-Saharan Africa is the only developing region in the world where food insecurity has worsened instead of improved in recent decades. In this discussion paper, Mark W. Rosegrant, Sarah A. Cline, Weibo Li, Timothy B. Sulser, and Rowena A. Valmonte-Santos show that this discouraging trend need not be a blueprint for the future. The research contained in this discussion paper was conducted in preparation for the IFPRI 2020 Africa conference “Assuring Food and Nutrition Security in Africa by 2020: Prioritizing Actions, Strengthening Actors, and Facilitating Partnerships,” held in Kampala, Uganda, April 1–3, 2004. The authors examine the implications of several different policy scenarios based on IFPRI's International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). This model, developed at IFPRI in the early 1990s, has been continually updated to incorporate more food sectors and geographic regions. In this paper, the authors use IMPACT to assess the consequences of a wide range of policy and investment choices for Africa, including a business as usual scenario (continuation of current policy and investment trends through 2025), a pessimistic scenario (declining trends in key investments and in agricultural productivity), and a vision scenario (improving trends in investments and hence in agricultural productivity and human capital), as well as scenarios for more effective use of rainfall in agriculture, reduced marketing margins, and three different scenarios for trade liberalization. The wide variation in results reveals how much these choices will matter. For example, the number of malnourished children under five years old in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2025 is projected to be 38.3 million under business as usual, 55.1 million under the pessimistic scenario, and 9.4 million under the vision scenario. It is our hope that this research will clarify the steps needed to help stimulate the actions contributing to approaching the vision scenario. " From Foreword by Joachim von BraunImpact model, Food insecurity, Forecasting, Agricultural productivity, Human capital, Malnutrition in children,